Ümraniyespor 1-0 Kocaelispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 22 Apr 2024

📅22/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.8
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
33%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.71
6+ Goals
9%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 29% vs market 26.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.36
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
8%
6.13
X/2
10%
5.0
X/X
14%
4.45
2/1
10%
32.5
2/2
15%
3.28
2/X
9%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
33%
+4.1pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.9pp
33%
Away Win
40%
-7.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.4pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Kocaelispor EU Bookmakers 43%
+1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -5%
1.20/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/0.98
-6% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 78%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
20.7 Crosses 17.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ümraniyespor
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Kocaelispor
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.42 xG 1.06
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 8
274 Passes 334
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.12.2023 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 0-3 HT 0-2 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
08.01.2022 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-0 HT 0-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
16.08.2021 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 0-3 HT 0-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ümraniyespor
1-0
AWAY Kocaelispor
1.62 xG 1.38
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 9
0 Corners 6
334 Passes 430
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 33
11 Crosses 27
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ümraniyespor vs Kocaelispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ümraniyespor edged past Kocaelispor 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 30% / 33% — and on the day Ümraniyespor made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Ümraniyespor had 44% of the ball to Kocaelispor's 56%, shots finished 17-19, expected goals 1.62 to 1.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ümraniyespor had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Ümraniyespor and 0.00 for Kocaelispor.

What was the final score of Ümraniyespor vs Kocaelispor?

Ümraniyespor 1-0 Kocaelispor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 22/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ümraniyespor vs Kocaelispor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ümraniyespor win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Ümraniyespor 37%, draw 30%, Kocaelispor 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ümraniyespor), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ümraniyespor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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