Bahia 1-0 Ceara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 22 Apr 2025

Bahia
1-0 HT 0-0
Ceara
📅22/04/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Bahia vs Ceara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.78
Over
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
30%
3.11
2-3
40%
1.82
4-5
20%
3.94
6+
10%
17.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.38
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
10%
14.4
X/1
20%
4.28
X/2
8%
8.89
X/X
10%
4.76
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
10%
7.29
2/X ✗
10%
15.9
Value flag · 2/X at 15.9 — our 10% vs market 3.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-6.3pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.0pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.2pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Ceara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceara EU Bookmakers 25%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.55/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.50
-11% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
22.1 Crosses 15.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.1

Bahia vs Ceara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Ceara
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.04 xG 1.32
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
336 Passes 312
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.10.2021 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
17.06.2021 Ceara Ceara 1-2 HT 1-2 Bahia Bahia BR1
08.05.2021 Ceara Ceara 1-2 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BRCDN
01.05.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-1 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BRCDN
06.12.2020 Bahia Bahia 0-2 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
24.08.2020 Ceara Ceara 2-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1

Bahia 1-0 Ceara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-0
AWAY Ceara
1.68 xG 1.21
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
516 Passes 244
90% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Ceara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia edged past Ceara 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bahia had 65% of the ball to Ceara's 35%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.68 to 1.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ceara led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Bahia and 1.33 for Ceara.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Ceara?

Bahia 1-0 Ceara in the Brazil - Serie A on 22/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Ceara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Bahia 46%, draw 30%, Ceara 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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