ADO Den Haag 1-2 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 22 May 2024

ADO Den Haag
1-2 HT 0-2
Excelsior
📅22/05/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
35%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.43
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.93
6+ Goals
13%
8.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.59
1/2
9%
25.5
1/X
5%
12.15
X/1
10%
5.93
X/2
12%
5.83
X/X
12%
5.13
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
14%
3.51
2/X
11%
12.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
-0.3pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.8pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

ADO Den Haag v Excelsior — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 40%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.04/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.79
+19% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -28%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
345 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 78%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
19.9 Crosses 20.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.7

ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADO Den Haag
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Excelsior
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.59 xG 1.76
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
352 Passes 381
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 29
22 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.05.2022 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 4-4 HT 2-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
24.05.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 1-1 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
25.01.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 2-3 HT 1-2 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
22.10.2021 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 0-2 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
25.04.2019 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 3-1 HT 2-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
01.09.2018 Excelsior Excelsior 2-4 HT 0-2 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL

ADO Den Haag 1-2 Excelsior — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADO Den Haag
1-2
AWAY Excelsior
2.67 xG 0.87
45% Ball Possession 55%
21 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
235 Passes 315
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 13
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior edged past ADO Den Haag 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Excelsior found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, ADO Den Haag had 45% of the ball to Excelsior's 55%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 2.67 to 0.87 — on chances, ADO Den Haag could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, ADO Den Haag had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for ADO Den Haag and 2.00 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?

ADO Den Haag 1-2 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 22/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADO Den Haag win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split ADO Den Haag 37%, draw 28%, Excelsior 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (ADO Den Haag) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ADO Den Haag) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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