Buzau 1-2 Sepsi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Romania - 1st Division, 22 Jul 2024

Buzau
1-2 HT 0-2
Sepsi
📅22/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
43%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.74
Over 2.5
53%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.87
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
4.06
6+ Goals
12%
19.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.06 — our 26% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
12%
2/2
25%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
24%
+8.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
43%
Away Win
50%
-6.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
54%
-7.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
46%
+7.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Buzau EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Sepsi EU Bookmakers 54%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +11%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / +47%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
229 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Buzau
1-2
AWAY Sepsi
1.52 xG 2.59
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 9
224 Passes 285
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 27
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Buzau vs Sepsi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sepsi edged past Buzau 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sepsi as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Buzau had 45% of the ball to Sepsi's 55%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.52 to 2.59.

What was the final score of Buzau vs Sepsi?

Buzau 1-2 Sepsi in the Romania - 1st Division on 22/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Buzau vs Sepsi?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sepsi win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Buzau 32%, draw 25%, Sepsi 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sepsi), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sepsi) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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