Arka Gdynia 1-1 Ruch Chorzow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 22 Aug 2024

📅22/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.29
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.58
6+ Goals
9%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 29% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.8pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Ruch Chorzow EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.75/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.28
+9% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +14%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arka Gdynia
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Ruch Chorzow
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.05.2023 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 0-2 HT 0-2 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow POL1
16.10.2022 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow 2-4 HT 1-3 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
27.05.2017 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 1-1 HT 1-1 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow POL
05.12.2016 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow 1-2 HT 0-2 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL
29.07.2016 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 3-0 HT 1-0 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arka Gdynia
1-1
AWAY Ruch Chorzow
55% Ball Possession 45%
22 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arka Gdynia and Ruch Chorzow couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Arka Gdynia at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Arka Gdynia had 55% of the ball to Ruch Chorzow's 45%, shots finished 22-4.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Arka Gdynia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.20 for Ruch Chorzow.

What was the final score of Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzow?

Arka Gdynia 1-1 Ruch Chorzow in the Poland - 1st Division on 22/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arka Gdynia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Arka Gdynia 42%, draw 27%, Ruch Chorzow 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Arka Gdynia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arka Gdynia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL1 More Poland - 1st Division
22 Aug 2024
18:30 Miedz Legnica vs Znicz Pruszkow Analysis →