Pogon Siedlce 2-4 Polonia Warszawa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.24
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
14.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 30% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
34%
+6.7pp
24%
Draw
29%
-5.3pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-1.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.2pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 40%
-16% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.91/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.29
-31% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
270 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Siedlce
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Polonia Warszawa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
13.11.2022 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 0-1 HT 0-1 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
23.07.2022 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-1 HT 2-0 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL2
POST-MATCH Pogon Siedlce vs Polonia Warszawa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonia Warszawa got the better of Pogon Siedlce 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (41% / 24% / 36%) promised a tight game; Polonia Warszawa found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Pogon Siedlce had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Pogon Siedlce and 0.50 for Polonia Warszawa.

What was the final score of Pogon Siedlce vs Polonia Warszawa?

Pogon Siedlce 2-4 Polonia Warszawa in the Poland - 1st Division on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Siedlce vs Polonia Warszawa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Siedlce win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Pogon Siedlce 41%, draw 24%, Polonia Warszawa 36%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Siedlce) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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