Vukovar 3-2 Rijeka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 22 Sep 2025

Vukovar
3-2 HT 1-2
Rijeka
📅22/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2025/2026

Vukovar vs Rijeka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
6.35
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
62%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
2.03
No
46%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.41
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.16
6+ Goals
9%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 26% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
4%
X/2
24%
X/X
10%
2/1
3%
2/2
32%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
13%
+1.0pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.0pp
62%
Away Win
67%
-5.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
45%
+8.5pp
46%
BTTS No
55%
-8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vukovar v Rijeka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vukovar EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Rijeka EU Bookmakers 71%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +6%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +27%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
279 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
– Crosses 17.6
– Yellow Cards 1.6

Vukovar 3-2 Rijeka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vukovar
3-2
AWAY Rijeka
1.88 xG 2.96
32% Ball Possession 68%
11 Total Shots 25
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 16
147 Passes 392
67% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 43
17 Crosses 35
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vukovar vs Rijeka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vukovar nicked a narrow win over Rijeka 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Rijeka carried 62% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Vukovar had 32% of the ball to Rijeka's 68%, shots finished 11-25, expected goals 1.88 to 2.96 — on chances, Rijeka could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Vukovar vs Rijeka?

Vukovar 3-2 Rijeka in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 22/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vukovar vs Rijeka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Vukovar 14%, draw 24%, Rijeka 62%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Rijeka), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rijeka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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