Adelaide United (K) 0-1 Wellington Phoenix (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 22 Nov 2024

Adelaide United (K)
0-1 HT 0-1
Wellington Phoenix (K)
📅22/11/2024 · 🕒09:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Australia - W-League – 2024/2025

Adelaide United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
37%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.29
Over 2.5
49%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
17%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
54%
-15.6pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.8pp
37%
Away Win
23%
+13.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
40%
+11.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
60%
-11.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.4pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adelaide United (K) v Wellington Phoenix (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United (K) EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix (K) EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -43% / -43%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
345 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
– Crosses 12.2
– Yellow Cards 1.7

Adelaide United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K) Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United (K)
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.36 xG 2.27
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
460 Passes 258
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
10 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
20.03.2024 Wellington Phoenix (K) Wellington Phoenix (K) 4-0 HT 1-0 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW
16.12.2023 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) 2-1 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix (K) Wellington Phoenix (K) AVUSTW

Adelaide United (K) 0-1 Wellington Phoenix (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United (K)
0-1
AWAY Wellington Phoenix (K)
0.40 xG 1.65
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
303 Passes 276
71% Pass Accuracy 69%
23 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Adelaide United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix (K) edged past Adelaide United (K) 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Wellington Phoenix (K) found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Adelaide United (K) had 51% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix (K)'s 49%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 0.40 to 1.65 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Wellington Phoenix (K)'s control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Adelaide United (K) and 2.50 for Wellington Phoenix (K).

What was the final score of Adelaide United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K)?

Adelaide United (K) 0-1 Wellington Phoenix (K) in the Australia - W-League on 22/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Adelaide United (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United (K) 38%, draw 25%, Wellington Phoenix (K) 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Adelaide United (K)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Adelaide United (K)) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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