Verl 1-1 Osnabrück — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 22 Dec 2024

📅22/12/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.99
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.18
6+ Goals
12%
10.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.72
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
17%
4.7
X/2
9%
7.35
X/X
8%
5.2
2/1
6%
23.4
2/2
12%
5.08
2/X
9%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-0.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.8pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Verl EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Osnabrück EU Bookmakers 31%
-5% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -24%
1.64/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.87
-1% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
9.0 Crosses 20.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Verl
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Osnabrück
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
08.05.2023 Verl Verl 0-1 HT 0-1 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
09.11.2022 Osnabrück Osnabrück 2-1 HT 0-1 Verl Verl AL3
11.04.2022 Osnabrück Osnabrück 3-2 HT 1-1 Verl Verl AL3
01.11.2021 Verl Verl 1-2 HT 0-2 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Verl
1-1
AWAY Osnabrück
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
365 Passes 206
77% Pass Accuracy 63%
20 Crosses 23
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Verl vs Osnabrück
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Verl and Osnabrück couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Verl at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Verl had 58% of the ball to Osnabrück's 42%, shots finished 10-14.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Osnabrück led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Verl and 2.00 for Osnabrück.

What was the final score of Verl vs Osnabrück?

Verl 1-1 Osnabrück in the Germany - 3rd Division on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Verl vs Osnabrück?

Before kick-off our model rated a Verl win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Verl 46%, draw 26%, Osnabrück 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Verl), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Verl) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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