Western Sydney Wanderers 4-1 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 22 Dec 2024

Western Sydney Wanderers
4-1 HT 2-0
Wellington Phoenix
📅22/12/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Western Sydney Wanderers vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
39%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.07
6+ Goals
11%
10.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 27% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.0
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
11%
5.03
X/2
17%
6.77
X/X
11%
5.01
2/1
10%
24.7
2/2
15%
4.55
2/X
8%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
44%
-6.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
39%
Away Win
30%
+8.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Western Sydney Wanderers v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Western Sydney Wanderers EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +32%
1.91/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.30
+30% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +62%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
359 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 80%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
17.9 Crosses 13.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Western Sydney Wanderers vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Western Sydney Wanderers
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.55 xG 0.86
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
520 Passes 336
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.12.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-0 HT 0-0 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
22.10.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 0-0 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
21.04.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 4-0 HT 2-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
10.12.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-1 HT 0-0 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
05.05.2022 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 1-2 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
24.04.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-0 HT 1-0 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS

Western Sydney Wanderers 4-1 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Western Sydney Wanderers
4-1
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
2.53 xG 2.81
54% Ball Possession 46%
22 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 4
522 Passes 428
90% Pass Accuracy 87%
37 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 12
POST-MATCH Western Sydney Wanderers vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western Sydney Wanderers swept aside Wellington Phoenix 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 39%) promised a tight game; Western Sydney Wanderers found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Western Sydney Wanderers had 54% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 46%, shots finished 22-13, expected goals 2.53 to 2.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Western Sydney Wanderers and 1.00 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Western Sydney Wanderers vs Wellington Phoenix?

Western Sydney Wanderers 4-1 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Western Sydney Wanderers vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated an Wellington Phoenix win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Western Sydney Wanderers 37%, draw 25%, Wellington Phoenix 39%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Wellington Phoenix) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wellington Phoenix) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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