Lusitania FC Lourosa 0-1 UD Oliveirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 22 Dec 2025

📅22/12/2025 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.78
Over 2.5
55%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.91
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
16.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.72 — our 28% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
47%
+3.4pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.9pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
52%
-7.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
48%
+7.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.0pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 30%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -5%
1.99/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.84
+30% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -29%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
298 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
29.8 Crosses 13.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
0-1
AWAY UD Oliveirense
0.89 xG 1.95
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
163 Passes 384
70% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Crosses 12
POST-MATCH Lusitania FC Lourosa vs UD Oliveirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD Oliveirense edged past Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lusitania FC Lourosa at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lusitania FC Lourosa had 34% of the ball to UD Oliveirense's 66%, shots finished 8-18, expected goals 0.89 to 1.95.

What was the final score of Lusitania FC Lourosa vs UD Oliveirense?

Lusitania FC Lourosa 0-1 UD Oliveirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 22/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania FC Lourosa vs UD Oliveirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Lusitania FC Lourosa 50%, draw 23%, UD Oliveirense 27%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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