Hearts 3-2 Dundee FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 23 Jan 2024

Hearts
3-2 HT 0-2
Dundee FC
📅23/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2023/2024

Hearts vs Dundee FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
31%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.99
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.86
6+ Goals
10%
17.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.35
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.75
X/1
12%
3.95
X/2
12%
8.57
X/X
13%
4.65
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
12%
6.89
2/X
8%
15.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
53%
-11.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
31%
Away Win
22%
+9.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hearts v Dundee FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hearts EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundee FC EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.77/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.19
+16% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
303 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 204 · 61%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
23.3 Crosses 21.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0

Hearts vs Dundee FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hearts
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Dundee FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.26 xG 0.71
68% Ball Possession 32%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
450 Passes 160
80% Pass Accuracy 61%
29 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.08.2023 Dundee FC Dundee FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
09.02.2022 Hearts Hearts 1-2 HT 1-0 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
18.12.2021 Dundee FC Dundee FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
23.10.2021 Hearts Hearts 1-1 HT 1-0 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
06.03.2021 Hearts Hearts 2-1 HT 1-0 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKCL
02.01.2021 Dundee FC Dundee FC 3-1 HT 2-0 Hearts Hearts İKCL

Hearts 3-2 Dundee FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hearts
3-2
AWAY Dundee FC
2.21 xG 0.69
67% Ball Possession 33%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
396 Passes 156
79% Pass Accuracy 61%
22 Box Touches 14
34 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Hearts vs Dundee FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hearts edged past Dundee FC 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hearts as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Hearts had 67% of the ball to Dundee FC's 33%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 2.21 to 0.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hearts's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dundee FC led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hearts and 1.33 for Dundee FC.

What was the final score of Hearts vs Dundee FC?

Hearts 3-2 Dundee FC in the Scotland - Premiership on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hearts vs Dundee FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Hearts 42%, draw 27%, Dundee FC 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hearts) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hearts) ✗ Under 2.5
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