Peterborough United 2-1 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 23 Jan 2024

Peterborough United
2-1 HT 2-1
Crawley Town
📅23/01/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
England - Futbol League Cup – 2023/2024

Peterborough United vs Crawley Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.57
Draw
29%
4.08
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.48
2-3 Goals
36%
1.99
4-5 Goals
27%
2.6
6+ Goals
15%
6.17
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.94
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.9
X/1
19%
4.1
X/2
8%
10.8
X/X
15%
6.67
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.4
2/2
10%
7.2
2/X
6%
15.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.4 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
59%
-11.1pp
29%
Draw
21%
+7.8pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.1pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Peterborough United v Crawley Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 23%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
2.44/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/0.99
+25% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -63% / -7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
345 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 69%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.9
18.8 Crosses 15.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.3

Peterborough United vs Crawley Town Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Peterborough United
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Crawley Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
The Meetings
11.08.2015 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-0 HT 1-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İNLK
25.04.2015 Peterborough United Peterborough United 4-3 HT 1-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN1
11.10.2014 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-4 HT 1-2 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
01.03.2014 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
31.08.2013 Peterborough United Peterborough United 0-2 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN1

Peterborough United 2-1 Crawley Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Peterborough United
2-1
AWAY Crawley Town
2.14 xG 0.69
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
334 Passes 454
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Peterborough United vs Crawley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Peterborough United nicked a narrow win over Crawley Town 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Peterborough United as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Peterborough United had 43% of the ball to Crawley Town's 57%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 2.14 to 0.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Peterborough United's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Peterborough United had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Peterborough United and 1.40 for Crawley Town.

What was the final score of Peterborough United vs Crawley Town?

Peterborough United 2-1 Crawley Town in the England - Futbol League Cup on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Peterborough United vs Crawley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Peterborough United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Peterborough United 48%, draw 29%, Crawley Town 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Peterborough United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Peterborough United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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