Caucaia 2-1 Barbalha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cearense 1, 23 Jan 2024

📅23/01/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.47
Draw
20%
3.45
Away
45%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
Over Pick
54%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
39%
4-5
27%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
12%
1/X
3%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.5pp
20%
Draw
26%
-5.4pp
45%
Away Win
37%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caucaia The Market 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Barbalha The Market 40%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+2% / +131% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
252 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caucaia
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Barbalha
5.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
11.03.2023 Caucaia Caucaia 2-0 HT 0-0 Barbalha Barbalha BRCAE1
01.03.2021 Barbalha Barbalha 0-8 HT 0-2 Caucaia Caucaia BRCAE1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caucaia
2-1
AWAY Barbalha
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Caucaia vs Barbalha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caucaia squeezed past Barbalha 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Barbalha at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Caucaia had 50% of the ball to Barbalha's 50%, shots finished 10-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Caucaia had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 5.00 goals for Caucaia and 0.00 for Barbalha.

What was the final score of Caucaia vs Barbalha?

Caucaia 2-1 Barbalha in the Brazil - Cearense 1 on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caucaia vs Barbalha?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barbalha win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Caucaia 35%, draw 20%, Barbalha 45%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Barbalha), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Barbalha) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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