Afogadense 3-2 CA Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Pernambucano 1, 23 Jan 2024

📅23/01/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.65
Draw
30%
4.19
Away
45%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
Over Pick
57%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Total Goals
0-1
19%
2-3
39%
4-5
31%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
12%
X/1
5%
X/2
25%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
25%
Home Win
18%
+6.7pp
30%
Draw
20%
+9.1pp
45%
Away Win
61%
-15.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Afogadense The Market 22%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Porto The Market 66%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-26% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
230 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 463 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Afogadense
0W-1D-0L
AWAY CA Porto
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
33% Ball Possession 67%
7 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
25.01.2023 CA Porto CA Porto 1-1 HT 0-1 Afogadense Afogadense BRPER1
POST-MATCH Afogadense vs CA Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Afogadense squeezed past CA Porto 3-2. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was CA Porto at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

What was the final score of Afogadense vs CA Porto?

Afogadense 3-2 CA Porto in the Brazil - Pernambucano 1 on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Afogadense vs CA Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Afogadense 25%, draw 30%, CA Porto 45%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (CA Porto) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CA Porto) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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