Coritiba 2-0 Independiente FSJ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Paranaense 1, 23 Jan 2024

📅23/01/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.18
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
25%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
Over
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
53%
No
47%
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
46%
4-5
21%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
45%
Home Win
42%
+3.5pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.7pp
25%
Away Win
33%
-8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Coritiba The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente FSJ The Market 37%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +46% / +46%
0.73/0.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.73/1.16
-51% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
344 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Coritiba
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Independiente FSJ
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.02.2023 Coritiba Coritiba 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente FSJ Independiente FSJ BRPR
05.02.2022 Independiente FSJ Independiente FSJ 1-1 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BRPR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Coritiba
2-0
AWAY Independiente FSJ
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Coritiba vs Independiente FSJ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coritiba saw off Independiente FSJ 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Coritiba as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Coritiba had 57% of the ball to Independiente FSJ's 43%, shots finished 18-8.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Coritiba and 0.50 for Independiente FSJ.

What was the final score of Coritiba vs Independiente FSJ?

Coritiba 2-0 Independiente FSJ in the Brazil - Paranaense 1 on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Coritiba vs Independiente FSJ?

Before kick-off our model rated a Coritiba win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Coritiba 45%, draw 30%, Independiente FSJ 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Coritiba) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Coritiba) ✗ BTTS Yes
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