Deportivo Pasto 0-1 Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 23 Jan 2024

📅23/01/2024 · 🕒04:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
33%
3.04
Away
27%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.54
Over 2.5
33%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+3.8pp
33%
Draw
30%
+2.8pp
27%
Away Win
34%
-6.8pp
67%
Under 2.5
61%
+6.3pp
33%
Over 2.5
39%
-6.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.1pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -17%
1.08/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.22
-12% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
297 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
14.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
17.4 Crosses 18.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Pasto
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Santa Fe
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.74 xG 1.14
44% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
232 Passes 313
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
07.08.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 2-0 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
15.02.2023 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-2 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
11.09.2022 Santa Fe Santa Fe 2-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
08.04.2022 Santa Fe Santa Fe 3-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOLK
01.04.2022 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-1 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOLK
17.03.2022 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 2-4 HT 1-2 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Pasto
0-1
AWAY Santa Fe
0.83 xG 0.47
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 0
374 Passes 258
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 8
28 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportivo Pasto vs Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Fe edged past Deportivo Pasto 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 33% / 27%) promised a tight game; Santa Fe found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Deportivo Pasto had 57% of the ball to Santa Fe's 43%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 0.83 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santa Fe led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 1.67 for Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Deportivo Pasto vs Santa Fe?

Deportivo Pasto 0-1 Santa Fe in the Colombia - Primera on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Pasto vs Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Pasto win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Pasto 40%, draw 33%, Santa Fe 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Deportivo Pasto) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Pasto) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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