Sporting Braga 1-0 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - League Cup, 23 Jan 2024

Sporting Braga
1-0 HT 0-0
Sporting CP
📅23/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Portugal - League Cup – 2023/2024

Sporting Braga vs Sporting CP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
41%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
4.2
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
2.99
6+ Goals
10%
9.21
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.2 — our 25% vs market 18.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.69
1/2
7%
21.3
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1
13%
8.15
X/2
9%
4.31
X/X
10%
5.53
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
26%
2.37
2/X
8%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+7.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
41%
Away Win
51%
-9.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.6pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Braga v Sporting CP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 56%
+43% / +43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
0.92/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.93/0.98
-10% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +85% / -2%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
305 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 83%
10.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
12.0 Crosses –
3.0 Yellow Cards –

Sporting Braga vs Sporting CP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sporting CP
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.80 xG 1.98
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
326 Passes 394
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.09.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
02.02.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 5-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
19.12.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 5-0 HT 5-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga PORLC
07.08.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-3 HT 2-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
22.01.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-2 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
14.08.2021 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-2 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR

Sporting Braga 1-0 Sporting CP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
1-0
AWAY Sporting CP
1.07 xG 1.23
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
279 Passes 512
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga nicked a narrow win over Sporting CP 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting CP at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 38% of the ball to Sporting CP's 62%, shots finished 8-19, expected goals 1.07 to 1.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sporting Braga and 2.83 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Sporting CP?

Sporting Braga 1-0 Sporting CP in the Portugal - League Cup on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 32%, draw 26%, Sporting CP 41%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting CP)
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