Real Madrid (K) 3-2 Real Sociedad (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Women's Super Cup, 23 Jan 2025

📅23/01/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.32
Draw
28%
4.81
Away
21%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
71%
-20.0pp
27%
Draw
18%
+9.7pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+10.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.6pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid (K) EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Sociedad (K) EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
394 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid (K)
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Real Sociedad (K)
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.09 xG 0.59
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 1
361 Passes 324
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
26.05.2024 Real Sociedad (K) Real Sociedad (K) 1-2 HT 1-2 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) İspanya - Premier Lig Kadınlar
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid (K)
3-2
AWAY Real Sociedad (K)
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Madrid (K) vs Real Sociedad (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid (K) nicked a narrow win over Real Sociedad (K) 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Real Madrid (K) as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Real Madrid (K) had 54% of the ball to Real Sociedad (K)'s 46%, shots finished 10-8.

What was the final score of Real Madrid (K) vs Real Sociedad (K)?

Real Madrid (K) 3-2 Real Sociedad (K) in the Spain - Women's Super Cup on 23/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid (K) vs Real Sociedad (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid (K) 51%, draw 27%, Real Sociedad (K) 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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