Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 23 Feb 2024

Bayer Leverkusen
2-1 HT 1-1
Mainz 05
📅23/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.34
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
17%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.87
6+ Goals
10%
8.18
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.6 — our 25% vs market 16.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.59
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
20.65
X/1
18%
3.5
X/2
5%
16.7
X/X
8%
7.35
2/1
9%
21.85
2/2
9%
12.95
2/X
6%
21.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
70%
-8.2pp
21%
Draw
18%
+2.4pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+5.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.2pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayer Leverkusen v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 15%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
2.17/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/2.06
-8% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / +4%
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
496 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
35.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
20.0 Crosses 13.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mainz 05
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.56 xG 1.33
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
455 Passes 275
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 30
15 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-3 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
19.02.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 HT 1-2 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
27.08.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-3 HT 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
18.02.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-2 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
25.09.2021 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
13.02.2021 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1

Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2-1
AWAY Mainz 05
1.16 xG 1.11
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 2
585 Passes 255
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen nicked a narrow win over Mainz 05 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 67% of the ball to Mainz 05's 33%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.16 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.33 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05?

Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 62%, draw 21%, Mainz 05 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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