Brisbane Roar 2-2 Western United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 23 Feb 2024

Brisbane Roar
2-2 HT 0-1
Western United
📅23/02/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Brisbane Roar vs Western United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.51
Over Pick
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.49
No
49%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1
24%
5.68
2-3
37%
2.03
4-5
26%
2.62
6+
13%
6.16
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.19
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.85
X/1
18%
4.42
X/2
9%
9.09
X/X
11%
6.42
2/1
8%
19.7
2/2
9%
5.85
2/X
6%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.3pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
63%
-12.0pp
49%
BTTS No
37%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brisbane Roar v Western United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Western United EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -5%
1.78/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.71
-24% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
407 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
33.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
20.1 Crosses 18.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9

Brisbane Roar vs Western United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Western United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.32 xG 1.50
49% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
394 Passes 418
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.12.2023 Western United Western United 2-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
18.03.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-0 HT 0-0 Western United Western United AVUS
30.12.2022 Western United Western United 1-1 HT 0-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
26.03.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-3 HT 1-1 Western United Western United AVUS
11.12.2021 Western United Western United 1-0 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
05.05.2021 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-1 HT 0-0 Western United Western United AVUS

Brisbane Roar 2-2 Western United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
2-2
AWAY Western United
2.02 xG 0.84
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
581 Passes 307
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Western United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brisbane Roar and Western United shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Brisbane Roar at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 63% of the ball to Western United's 37%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.02 to 0.84.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Western United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.33 for Western United.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Western United?

Brisbane Roar 2-2 Western United in the Australia - A-League on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Western United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 50%, draw 24%, Western United 26%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brisbane Roar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brisbane Roar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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