FC Lahti 1-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - League Cup, 23 Feb 2024

📅23/02/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.11
2-3 Goals
46%
1.85
4-5 Goals
18%
3.06
6+ Goals
9%
9.69
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.11 — our 27% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.5pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Lahti EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -47% / -47%
0.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.00
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -37%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
307 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Lahti
2W-1D-3L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.58 xG 1.28
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
436 Passes 256
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
23.07.2023 FC Lahti FC Lahti 0-2 HT 0-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
16.04.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-3 HT 1-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
19.02.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-2 HT 0-1 FC Lahti FC Lahti FLK
18.09.2022 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 6-0 HT 1-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
26.08.2022 FC Lahti FC Lahti 0-2 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Lahti
1-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Lahti vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Lahti and IFK Mariehamn shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, FC Lahti had 49% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 51%, shots finished 9-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, IFK Mariehamn led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for FC Lahti and 2.00 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of FC Lahti vs IFK Mariehamn?

FC Lahti 1-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - League Cup on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Lahti vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Lahti win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FC Lahti 40%, draw 28%, IFK Mariehamn 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Lahti) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Lahti) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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