Metz 1-2 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 23 Feb 2024

Metz
1-2 HT 1-1
Lyon
📅23/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Metz vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.5
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
42%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.75
Over 2.5
41%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.96
2-3 Goals
34%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.94
6+ Goals
10%
17.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.96 — our 36% vs market 28.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.09
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
9%
14.9
X/1
6%
7.7
X/2
15%
4.16
X/X
15%
4.53
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.58
2/X
7%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
25%
+2.3pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.0pp
42%
Away Win
49%
-6.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
53%
+5.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
47%
-5.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-8.1pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Metz v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Metz EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon EU Bookmakers 53%
-6% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
0.96/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/1.31
-22% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -15%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
265 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 436 · 82%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.5
20.6 Crosses 16.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Metz vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metz
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lyon
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.15 xG 1.83
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
226 Passes 504
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 35
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Lyon Lyon 1-1 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
07.01.2023 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FRK
08.05.2022 Metz Metz 3-2 HT 2-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
22.12.2021 Lyon Lyon 1-1 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
17.01.2021 Lyon Lyon 0-1 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
06.12.2020 Metz Metz 1-3 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1

Metz 1-2 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metz
1-2
AWAY Lyon
1.65 xG 1.63
38% Ball Possession 62%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
247 Passes 430
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 29
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Metz vs Lyon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon nicked a narrow win over Metz 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lyon as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Metz had 38% of the ball to Lyon's 62%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.65 to 1.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Metz and 1.50 for Lyon.

What was the final score of Metz vs Lyon?

Metz 1-2 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Metz vs Lyon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Metz 27%, draw 30%, Lyon 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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