Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 Osijek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 23 Feb 2024

Lokomotiva Zagreb
1-1 HT 1-0
Osijek
📅23/02/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2023/2024

Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.9
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.02
6+ Goals
8%
18.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 32% vs market 28.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
37%
+4.7pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.5pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-1.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.5pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lokomotiva Zagreb v Osijek — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Osijek EU Bookmakers 38%
-1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -21%
1.16/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.15
+27% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
311 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 73%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
20.5 Crosses 17.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7

Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Osijek
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.40 xG 1.28
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
292 Passes 276
72% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Osijek Osijek 1-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
26.08.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
15.04.2023 Osijek Osijek 2-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
04.02.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
01.10.2022 Osijek Osijek 4-1 HT 3-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
24.07.2022 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-1 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR

Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 Osijek — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
1-1
AWAY Osijek
1.22 xG 1.89
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 9
196 Passes 301
65% Pass Accuracy 71%
14 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb and Osijek couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiva Zagreb at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Lokomotiva Zagreb had 41% of the ball to Osijek's 59%, shots finished 6-16, expected goals 1.22 to 1.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiva Zagreb had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.67 for Osijek.

What was the final score of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek?

Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 Osijek in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiva Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiva Zagreb 42%, draw 25%, Osijek 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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