Utrecht 1-0 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 23 Feb 2024

Utrecht
1-0 HT 0-0
Heracles
📅23/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Utrecht vs Heracles Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.33
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
62%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.76
No
42%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.89
2-3 Goals
37%
1.94
4-5 Goals
27%
2.79
6+ Goals
17%
7.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.64
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
18.1
X/1
17%
3.72
X/2
8%
15.55
X/X
7%
7.14
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
21.0
2/2
7%
11.4
2/X
5%
18.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.0 — our 12% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 62% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
66%
-9.0pp
22%
Draw
19%
+2.9pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+6.0pp
38%
Under 2.5
39%
-1.1pp
62%
Over 2.5
61%
+1.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
53%
+5.0pp
42%
BTTS No
47%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Utrecht v Heracles — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 17%
-4% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.93/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.96
-18% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -13%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
418 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 76%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
25.1 Crosses 15.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Utrecht vs Heracles Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Heracles
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.95 xG 1.18
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
372 Passes 345
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Heracles Heracles 1-3 HT 0-2 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
11.02.2022 Heracles Heracles 1-0 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
28.11.2021 Utrecht Utrecht 1-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
16.01.2021 Utrecht Utrecht 2-0 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
01.11.2020 Heracles Heracles 4-1 HT 2-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
15.12.2019 Heracles Heracles 1-3 HT 1-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL

Utrecht 1-0 Heracles — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht
1-0
AWAY Heracles
1.44 xG 0.51
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 3
387 Passes 315
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 10
35 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Utrecht vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht nicked a narrow win over Heracles 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Utrecht as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Utrecht had 54% of the ball to Heracles's 46%, shots finished 11-4, expected goals 1.44 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Utrecht and 1.17 for Heracles.

What was the final score of Utrecht vs Heracles?

Utrecht 1-0 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Utrecht 57%, draw 22%, Heracles 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Utrecht) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Utrecht) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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