23/02/2024
·
19:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-1
Naft Al-Wasat vs Newroz Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
Over 2.5
38%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
No
59%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
17%
2/1
12%
2/2
18%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
44%
26%
Draw
28%
39%
Away Win
28%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Naft Al-Wasat v Newroz — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Naft Al-Wasat
EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY
Newroz
EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
55%
Ball Possession
45%
11
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
406 · 80%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
277 · 73%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Naft Al-Wasat vs Newroz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Newroz ran out comfortable winners over Naft Al-Wasat 4-0 away from home.
We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Newroz made the difference. On goals, no to both teams scoring (59%) landed while under 2.5 goals (62%) missed.
What was the final score of Naft Al-Wasat vs Newroz?
Naft Al-Wasat 0-4 Newroz in the Iraq - Premier League on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Naft Al-Wasat vs Newroz?
Before kick-off our model rated an Newroz win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Naft Al-Wasat 35%, draw 26%, Newroz 39%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newroz), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Newroz)
✗ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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23 Feb 2024