Miedz Legnica 2-1 Polonia Warszawa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 23 Feb 2024

📅23/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 28% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.6pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Miedz Legnica EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.65/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.16
+2% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +30%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
412 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Miedz Legnica
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Polonia Warszawa
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 11
13 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.08.2023 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 3-4 HT 1-1 Miedz Legnica Miedz Legnica POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Miedz Legnica
2-1
AWAY Polonia Warszawa
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Miedz Legnica vs Polonia Warszawa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Miedz Legnica nicked a narrow win over Polonia Warszawa 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Miedz Legnica as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Miedz Legnica had 53% of the ball to Polonia Warszawa's 47%, shots finished 11-5.

What was the final score of Miedz Legnica vs Polonia Warszawa?

Miedz Legnica 2-1 Polonia Warszawa in the Poland - 1st Division on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Miedz Legnica vs Polonia Warszawa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Miedz Legnica win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Miedz Legnica 48%, draw 25%, Polonia Warszawa 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Miedz Legnica) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Miedz Legnica) ✗ Under 2.5
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