Arouca 3-2 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 23 Feb 2024

Arouca
3-2 HT 2-1
Famalicao
📅23/02/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Arouca vs Famalicao Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
27%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
59%
1.75
Over 2.5
41%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.76
No
57%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.0
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.89
6+ Goals
9%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 35% vs market 27.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.24
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.05
X/1
16%
4.92
X/2
11%
6.26
X/X
14%
4.28
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
10%
4.56
2/X
8%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 59% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.6pp
33%
Draw
28%
+4.6pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-3.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
53%
+5.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
47%
-5.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.6pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arouca v Famalicao — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
1.52/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.24
+12% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +12%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
285 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 75%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
19.2 Crosses 18.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.8

Arouca vs Famalicao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Famalicao
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.52 xG 0.72
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
335 Passes 296
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
22.09.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-0 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
03.04.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 0-1 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
10.10.2022 Arouca Arouca 4-1 HT 1-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
01.02.2022 Famalicao Famalicao 0-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
31.01.2022 Famalicao Famalicao 0-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
20.08.2021 Arouca Arouca 2-1 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR

Arouca 3-2 Famalicao — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
3-2
AWAY Famalicao
1.73 xG 1.05
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
296 Passes 256
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 13
10 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca edged past Famalicao 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 33% / 27%) promised a tight game; Arouca found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arouca had 53% of the ball to Famalicao's 47%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.73 to 1.05.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Arouca and 0.50 for Famalicao.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Famalicao?

Arouca 3-2 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Arouca 40%, draw 33%, Famalicao 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arouca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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