23/03/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-1
2nd Score
1-2
Real Monterotondo Scalo vs Tivoli Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
Over Pick
51%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
47%
4-5
15%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 51% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
35%
Home Win
35%
24%
Draw
26%
42%
Away Win
39%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Real Monterotondo Scalo v Tivoli — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Real Monterotondo Scalo
The Market 39%
Head to Head
AWAY
Tivoli
The Market 43%
-3% /
-3%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
+67%
/
-48%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
54%
Ball Possession
46%
11
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
3
366 · 79%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
386 · 80%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Real Monterotondo Scalo vs Tivoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Real Monterotondo Scalo and Tivoli shared the points in a 2-2 draw.
Our pre-match lean was Tivoli at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
What was the final score of Real Monterotondo Scalo vs Tivoli?
Real Monterotondo Scalo 2-2 Tivoli in the Italy - Serie D on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Real Monterotondo Scalo vs Tivoli?
Before kick-off our model rated an Tivoli win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Real Monterotondo Scalo 35%, draw 24%, Tivoli 42%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Tivoli) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Tivoli)
✓ Over 2.5
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More Italy - Serie D
23 Mar 2024