Newcastle Jets (K) 3-2 Melbourne Victory (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 23 Mar 2024

Newcastle Jets (K)
3-2 HT 1-1
Melbourne Victory (K)
📅23/03/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2023/2024

Newcastle Jets (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
44%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.51
Over 2.5
60%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.46
No
38%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
33%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
22%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
26%
+1.7pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.5pp
44%
Away Win
50%
-6.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
36%
+3.7pp
60%
Over 2.5
64%
-3.7pp
62%
BTTS Yes
64%
-2.5pp
38%
BTTS No
36%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle Jets (K) v Melbourne Victory (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle Jets (K) EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory (K) EU Bookmakers 55%
-44% / -44% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +31% / +31%
1.17/2.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.34/1.66
-100% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -60%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 387 · 83%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
24.0 Crosses 25.0
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Newcastle Jets (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle Jets (K)
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Melbourne Victory (K)
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.09 xG 2.20
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
260 Passes 325
69% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 27
The Meetings
05.01.2020 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 2-1 HT 2-0 Newcastle Jets (K) Newcastle Jets (K) AVUSTW
01.11.2018 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 2-1 HT 2-1 Newcastle Jets (K) Newcastle Jets (K) AVUSTW
29.12.2017 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 1-3 HT 1-2 Newcastle Jets (K) Newcastle Jets (K) AVUSTW

Newcastle Jets (K) 3-2 Melbourne Victory (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle Jets (K)
3-2
AWAY Melbourne Victory (K)
2.22 xG 1.03
48% Ball Possession 52%
22 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 1
253 Passes 300
67% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Newcastle Jets (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle Jets (K) edged past Melbourne Victory (K) 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory (K) at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Newcastle Jets (K) had 48% of the ball to Melbourne Victory (K)'s 52%, shots finished 22-13, expected goals 2.22 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory (K) led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Newcastle Jets (K) and 1.67 for Melbourne Victory (K).

What was the final score of Newcastle Jets (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)?

Newcastle Jets (K) 3-2 Melbourne Victory (K) in the Australia - W-League on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle Jets (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Newcastle Jets (K) 28%, draw 28%, Melbourne Victory (K) 44%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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