Fiorentina (K) 1-0 Inter Milano (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italya - Women's Serie A, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
20%
X/X
17%
2/1
3%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-0.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.9pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina (K) EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Inter Milano (K) EU Bookmakers 40%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -50% / -50%
1.31/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.02
-41% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
342 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 73%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
10.6 Crosses 24.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina (K)
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Inter Milano (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.03 xG 1.68
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
279 Passes 316
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.02.2025 Inter Milano (K) Inter Milano (K) 2-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina (K) Fiorentina (K) İTKSA
03.11.2024 Fiorentina (K) Fiorentina (K) 2-1 HT 0-1 Inter Milano (K) Inter Milano (K) İTKSA
01.05.2024 Inter Milano (K) Inter Milano (K) 2-2 HT 1-0 Fiorentina (K) Fiorentina (K) İTKSA
24.03.2024 Fiorentina (K) Fiorentina (K) 0-3 HT 0-1 Inter Milano (K) Inter Milano (K) İTKSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina (K)
1-0
AWAY Inter Milano (K)
1.69 xG 1.66
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 22
5 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 6
255 Passes 477
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 39
5 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fiorentina (K) vs Inter Milano (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina (K) edged past Inter Milano (K) 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Fiorentina (K) found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Fiorentina (K) had 36% of the ball to Inter Milano (K)'s 64%, shots finished 10-22, expected goals 1.69 to 1.66.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Inter Milano (K) led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fiorentina (K) and 2.00 for Inter Milano (K).

What was the final score of Fiorentina (K) vs Inter Milano (K)?

Fiorentina (K) 1-0 Inter Milano (K) in the Italya - Women's Serie A on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina (K) vs Inter Milano (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina (K) 36%, draw 28%, Inter Milano (K) 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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