Arsenal 5-0 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 23 Apr 2024

Arsenal
5-0 HT 1-0
Chelsea
📅23/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.43
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
17%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.67
2-3 Goals
36%
1.91
4-5 Goals
27%
2.85
6+ Goals
15%
7.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.7
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.3
X/1
16%
3.64
X/2
5%
14.2
X/X
6%
6.95
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.9
2/2
7%
10.65
2/X
8%
18.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.9 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
66%
-3.4pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.3pp
17%
Away Win
15%
+2.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.0pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Chelsea — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 18%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -16%
1.99/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/2.30
+3% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -29%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
505 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 77%
37.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
21.1 Crosses 10.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Arsenal vs Chelsea Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Chelsea
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.52 xG 1.06
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
354 Passes 440
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 2-2 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
02.05.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 3-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
06.11.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
24.07.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 4-0 HT 2-0 Chelsea Chelsea FLO
20.04.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 2-4 HT 2-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
22.08.2021 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-2 Chelsea Chelsea İNP

Arsenal 5-0 Chelsea — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
5-0
AWAY Chelsea
3.42 xG 1.68
44% Ball Possession 56%
27 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
439 Passes 557
88% Pass Accuracy 88%
55 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal cruised past Chelsea 5-0. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Arsenal had 44% of the ball to Chelsea's 56%, shots finished 27-7, expected goals 3.42 to 1.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Arsenal and 1.17 for Chelsea.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Chelsea?

Arsenal 5-0 Chelsea in the England - Premier League on 23/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 62%, draw 21%, Chelsea 17%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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