Quilmes 2-2 Patronato — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 23 Apr 2024

📅23/04/2024 · 🕒03:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.64
Draw
37%
3.28
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
1.44
Over 2.5
31%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.67
No
64%
1.41
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
4%
X/X
21%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
57%
-15.2pp
37%
Draw
28%
+9.7pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+5.5pp
69%
Under 2.5
66%
+3.2pp
31%
Over 2.5
34%
-3.2pp
36%
BTTS Yes
33%
+2.7pp
64%
BTTS No
67%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Quilmes EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Patronato EU Bookmakers 18%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -16%
1.47/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/1.67
+9% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -21%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
340 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Quilmes
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Patronato
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
62% Ball Possession 38%
23 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
303 Passes 138
73% Pass Accuracy 54%
34 Box Touches 8
55 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 5
06.06.2017 Quilmes Quilmes 0-1 HT 0-1 Patronato Patronato ARJ
23.02.2016 Quilmes Quilmes 2-2 HT 1-0 Patronato Patronato ARJ
POST-MATCH Quilmes vs Patronato
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Quilmes and Patronato couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (42% / 37% / 21%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Patronato led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Quilmes and 1.50 for Patronato.

What was the final score of Quilmes vs Patronato?

Quilmes 2-2 Patronato in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 23/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Quilmes vs Patronato?

Before kick-off our model rated a Quilmes win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Quilmes 42%, draw 37%, Patronato 21%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Quilmes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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