Vila Nova 2-0 Guarani FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 23 Apr 2024

Vila Nova
2-0 HT 1-0
Guarani FC
📅23/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Vila Nova vs Guarani FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.0
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
22%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.48
Over 2.5
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.2
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
15%
5.63
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+1.3pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.1pp
22%
Away Win
24%
-2.4pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-0.7pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+0.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.4pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vila Nova v Guarani FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Guarani FC EU Bookmakers 28%
-8% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +12%
1.23/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.08
-32% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
301 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 77%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
21.2 Crosses 18.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7

Vila Nova vs Guarani FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Guarani FC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.98 xG 0.75
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
286 Passes 308
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Guarani FC Guarani FC 1-1 HT 0-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
10.06.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
07.09.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-1 HT 0-1 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
03.06.2022 Guarani FC Guarani FC 1-1 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
16.03.2022 Guarani FC Guarani FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BRK
08.11.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-2 HT 1-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2

Vila Nova 2-0 Guarani FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
2-0
AWAY Guarani FC
1.59 xG 0.93
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
256 Passes 281
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
11 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Guarani FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova got the better of Guarani FC 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vila Nova as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Vila Nova had 48% of the ball to Guarani FC's 52%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 1.59 to 0.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vila Nova had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vila Nova and 1.17 for Guarani FC.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Guarani FC?

Vila Nova 2-0 Guarani FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 23/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Guarani FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 48%, draw 31%, Guarani FC 22%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vila Nova), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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