Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 Sekhukhune United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 23 Apr 2024

Mamelodi Sundowns
2-1 HT 2-0
Sekhukhune United
📅23/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
South Afrika - Premier League – 2023/2024

Mamelodi Sundowns vs Sekhukhune United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.39
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.5
6+ Goals
8%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 32% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-6.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.1pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.4pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mamelodi Sundowns v Sekhukhune United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Sekhukhune United EU Bookmakers 27%
+4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
1.56/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.01
+36% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +26%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
343 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
17.0 Crosses 17.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.5

Mamelodi Sundowns vs Sekhukhune United Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Sekhukhune United
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
1.90 xG 0.43
72% Ball Possession 28%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
511 Passes 146
88% Pass Accuracy 66%
28 Box Touches 8
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.08.2023 Sekhukhune United Sekhukhune United 1-2 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
28.01.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 2-0 HT 0-0 Sekhukhune United Sekhukhune United GAFPSL
20.08.2022 Sekhukhune United Sekhukhune United 1-1 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
03.05.2022 Sekhukhune United Sekhukhune United 0-2 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
27.11.2021 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 2-0 HT 1-0 Sekhukhune United Sekhukhune United GAFPSL

Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 Sekhukhune United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
2-1
AWAY Sekhukhune United
0.65 xG 2.13
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
295 Passes 190
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
13 Box Touches 29
6 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs Sekhukhune United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns nicked a narrow win over Sekhukhune United 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 56% of the ball to Sekhukhune United's 44%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 0.65 to 2.13 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sekhukhune United.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.40 for Sekhukhune United.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs Sekhukhune United?

Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 Sekhukhune United in the South Afrika - Premier League on 23/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Sekhukhune United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 45%, draw 29%, Sekhukhune United 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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