Cagliari 2-3 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 23 May 2024

Cagliari
2-3 HT 0-1
Fiorentina
📅23/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Cagliari vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.04
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
45%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.92
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.16
6+ Goals
10%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.92 — our 27% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.96
1/2
14%
22.3
1/X
7%
14.7
X/1
10%
9.43
X/2
12%
4.13
X/X
11%
5.33
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.2
2/X
7%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
22%
+8.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
45%
Away Win
54%
-9.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.1pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cagliari v Fiorentina — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cagliari EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 58%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -12%
1.13/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.11
+8% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -15%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
265 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 463 · 84%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
20.1 Crosses 18.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Cagliari vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cagliari
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Fiorentina
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.95 xG 1.49
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
293 Passes 424
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.10.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 3-0 HT 2-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
23.01.2022 Cagliari Cagliari 1-1 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
24.10.2021 Fiorentina Fiorentina 3-0 HT 2-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
12.05.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 0-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
10.01.2021 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-0 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
08.07.2020 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-0 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA

Cagliari 2-3 Fiorentina — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cagliari
2-3
AWAY Fiorentina
1.91 xG 1.99
37% Ball Possession 63%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
173 Passes 364
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cagliari vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina edged past Cagliari 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Cagliari had 37% of the ball to Fiorentina's 63%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.91 to 1.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Cagliari and 1.33 for Fiorentina.

What was the final score of Cagliari vs Fiorentina?

Cagliari 2-3 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 23/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cagliari vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Cagliari 30%, draw 25%, Fiorentina 45%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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