Bochum 0-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga Play-Out, 23 May 2024

Bochum
0-3 HT 0-1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
📅23/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga Play-Out – 2023/2024

Bochum vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
1.97
Over
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
28%
3.6
2-3
41%
1.81
4-5
21%
3.34
6+
10%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.6 — our 28% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.93
1/2
10%
32.5
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
11%
4.78
X/2
10%
6.66
X/X
12%
4.88
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
14%
4.66
2/X
6%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 51% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.1pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bochum v Fortuna Düsseldorf — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bochum EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
310 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Bochum vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bochum
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.17 xG 1.10
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
370 Passes 276
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
17 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.07.2023 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 Bochum Bochum HAZ
22.03.2021 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 HT 0-2 Bochum Bochum AL2
30.11.2020 Bochum Bochum 5-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
06.04.2018 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 HT 0-0 Bochum Bochum AL2
30.10.2017 Bochum Bochum 0-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
03.03.2017 Bochum Bochum 1-2 HT 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2

Bochum 0-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bochum
0-3
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf
0.72 xG 2.32
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 8
400 Passes 237
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
33 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Bochum vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Düsseldorf cruised past Bochum 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Fortuna Düsseldorf made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Bochum had 60% of the ball to Fortuna Düsseldorf's 40%, shots finished 17-21, expected goals 0.72 to 2.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bochum had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bochum and 1.00 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.

What was the final score of Bochum vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?

Bochum 0-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf in the Germany - Bundesliga Play-Out on 23/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bochum vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bochum win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Bochum 39%, draw 27%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 34%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bochum) ✗ Under 2.5
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