Ethiopian Insurance 4-1 Adama City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Etiyopya - Premier League, 23 May 2024

📅23/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.71
Over
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
43%
4-5
17%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
22%
X/2
20%
X/X
20%
2/1
5%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-1.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.3pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ethiopian Insurance EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Adama City EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -64% / +105%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
335 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ethiopian Insurance
4-1
AWAY Adama City
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ethiopian Insurance vs Adama City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ethiopian Insurance cruised past Adama City 4-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ethiopian Insurance as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ethiopian Insurance had 50% of the ball to Adama City's 50%, shots finished 8-8.

What was the final score of Ethiopian Insurance vs Adama City?

Ethiopian Insurance 4-1 Adama City in the Etiyopya - Premier League on 23/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ethiopian Insurance vs Adama City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ethiopian Insurance win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ethiopian Insurance 43%, draw 28%, Adama City 29%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ethiopian Insurance) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ethiopian Insurance) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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