Kwara United 4-0 Heartland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 23 Jun 2024

📅23/06/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.27
Draw
25%
5.15
Away
12%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.18
Over 2.5
43%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
53%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
5%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
75%
-11.9pp
25%
Draw
17%
+8.6pp
12%
Away Win
9%
+3.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
42%
+15.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
58%
-15.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kwara United EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Heartland EU Bookmakers 11%
+11% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
1.79/0.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.41/1.70
-3% / +136% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
393 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kwara United
0W-3D-0L
AWAY Heartland
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
25.01.2024 Heartland Heartland 1-1 HT 0-0 Kwara United Kwara United NIJ
25.07.2021 Heartland Heartland 0-0 HT 0-0 Kwara United Kwara United NIJ
14.03.2021 Kwara United Kwara United 0-0 HT 0-0 Heartland Heartland NIJ
POST-MATCH Kwara United vs Heartland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kwara United swept aside Heartland 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kwara United as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (61%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Kwara United and 0.33 for Heartland.

What was the final score of Kwara United vs Heartland?

Kwara United 4-0 Heartland in the Nigeria NPFL on 23/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kwara United vs Heartland?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kwara United win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Kwara United 63%, draw 25%, Heartland 12%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kwara United), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kwara United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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