Santos 4-0 Coritiba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 23 Jul 2024

Santos
4-0 HT 2-0
Coritiba
📅23/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Santos vs Coritiba Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.62
Over 2.5
37%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.19
No
64%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.57
2-3 Goals
35%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.58
6+ Goals
8%
24.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.57 — our 38% vs market 32.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
5%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-8.6pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.4pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.2pp
63%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.9pp
37%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.9pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.1pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Santos v Coritiba — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Coritiba EU Bookmakers 19%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -10%
1.36/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.54/1.15
+46% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +26%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
353 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
24.7 Crosses 15.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Santos vs Coritiba Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Coritiba
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.26 xG 1.13
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
352 Passes 305
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
27.10.2023 Santos Santos 2-1 HT 1-1 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
10.06.2023 Coritiba Coritiba 0-0 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
09.08.2022 Coritiba Coritiba 1-2 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
13.05.2022 Santos Santos 3-0 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BRK
21.04.2022 Coritiba Coritiba 1-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BRK
17.04.2022 Santos Santos 2-1 HT 2-1 Coritiba Coritiba BR1

Santos 4-0 Coritiba — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
4-0
AWAY Coritiba
2.21 xG 0.69
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
310 Passes 385
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Santos vs Coritiba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos ran out comfortable winners over Coritiba 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Santos as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (64%) landed while under 2.5 goals (63%) missed.

On the day, Santos had 45% of the ball to Coritiba's 55%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 2.21 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Santos and 0.67 for Coritiba.

What was the final score of Santos vs Coritiba?

Santos 4-0 Coritiba in the Brazil - Serie B on 23/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs Coritiba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Santos 49%, draw 29%, Coritiba 21%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Santos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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