Aalborg 0-4 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 23 Aug 2024

📅23/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
42%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.07
6+ Goals
11%
9.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.81
1/2
11%
22.3
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
11%
8.23
X/2
14%
4.35
X/X
14%
5.39
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.4
2/X
7%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+5.8pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
42%
Away Win
50%
-9.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.3pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aalborg EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 55%
-11% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -25%
1.22/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.34
-37% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
317 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 79%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.1
19.9 Crosses 27.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aalborg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.83 xG 1.70
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
352 Passes 301
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 27
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2023 Aalborg Aalborg 0-1 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
17.09.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 3-1 HT 0-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
18.10.2021 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 1-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
08.08.2021 Aalborg Aalborg 2-0 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
09.07.2021 Aalborg Aalborg 1-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus HAZ
28.05.2021 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-2 HT 1-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aalborg
0-4
AWAY AGF Aarhus
0.43 xG 1.83
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 11
0 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
263 Passes 302
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aalborg vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus ran out comfortable winners over Aalborg 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

As we said in the preview, our model had AGF Aarhus as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Aalborg had 48% of the ball to AGF Aarhus's 52%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 0.43 to 1.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Aalborg and 1.17 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of Aalborg vs AGF Aarhus?

Aalborg 0-4 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aalborg vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated an AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Aalborg 31%, draw 27%, AGF Aarhus 42%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AGF Aarhus) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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