Polonia Warszawa 2-0 Warta Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 23 Aug 2024

📅23/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
37%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.62
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.49
6+ Goals
8%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-7.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.1pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Warta Poznan EU Bookmakers 33%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
0.81/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.72
-45% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -20%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
287 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonia Warszawa
2-0
AWAY Warta Poznan
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Polonia Warszawa vs Warta Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonia Warszawa saw off Warta Poznan 2-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Polonia Warszawa found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Polonia Warszawa had 46% of the ball to Warta Poznan's 54%, shots finished 12-11.

What was the final score of Polonia Warszawa vs Warta Poznan?

Polonia Warszawa 2-0 Warta Poznan in the Poland - 1st Division on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonia Warszawa vs Warta Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Warta Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Polonia Warszawa 35%, draw 28%, Warta Poznan 37%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Warta Poznan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Warta Poznan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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