Uniao De Leiria 1-1 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 23 Aug 2024

Uniao De Leiria
1-1 HT 0-0
Alverca
📅23/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Uniao De Leiria vs Alverca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.75
Over 2.5
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.85
No
60%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.95
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.95
6+ Goals
8%
17.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 33% vs market 28.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-0.9pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.9pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
50%
-10.1pp
60%
BTTS No
50%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Uniao De Leiria v Alverca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+25% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
331 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
17.6 Crosses –
2.8 Yellow Cards –

Uniao De Leiria vs Alverca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Alverca
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
46% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
22.04.2023 Alverca Alverca 1-2 HT 1-1 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR3
08.01.2023 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-2 HT 0-2 Alverca Alverca POR3
21.03.2004 Alverca Alverca 1-4 HT 0-3 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
02.11.2003 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 2-1 HT 2-0 Alverca Alverca POR
07.04.2002 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 2-1 HT 1-0 Alverca Alverca POR
02.12.2001 Alverca Alverca 1-1 HT 0-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR

Uniao De Leiria 1-1 Alverca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
1-1
AWAY Alverca
0.84 xG 0.78
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
344 Passes 249
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao De Leiria and Alverca couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Uniao De Leiria at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 53% of the ball to Alverca's 47%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.84 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Uniao De Leiria had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Uniao De Leiria and 1.17 for Alverca.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Alverca?

Uniao De Leiria 1-1 Alverca in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 47%, draw 24%, Alverca 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Uniao De Leiria), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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