Ceuta 0-1 Sporting Gijon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 23 Aug 2025

Ceuta
0-1 HT 0-1
Sporting Gijon
📅23/08/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Ceuta vs Sporting Gijon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.47
Draw
29%
2.77
Away
38%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.55
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
4.22
6+ Goals
7%
21.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.68
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
11.5
X/1
9%
5.65
X/2 EV+ ✗
18%
6.42
X/X
14%
3.56
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
13%
4.52
2/X
7%
11.85
Value flag · X/2 at 6.42 — our 18% vs market 11.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
37%
-3.8pp
29%
Draw
33%
-3.7pp
38%
Away Win
31%
+7.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ceuta v Sporting Gijon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceuta EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Gijon EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +9%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
309 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
– Crosses 16.8
– Yellow Cards 2.4

Ceuta 0-1 Sporting Gijon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceuta
0-1
AWAY Sporting Gijon
0.93 xG 0.86
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
405 Passes 203
80% Pass Accuracy 67%
21 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ceuta vs Sporting Gijon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Gijon edged past Ceuta 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (33% / 29% / 38%) promised a tight game; Sporting Gijon found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ceuta had 63% of the ball to Sporting Gijon's 37%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 0.93 to 0.86.

What was the final score of Ceuta vs Sporting Gijon?

Ceuta 0-1 Sporting Gijon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceuta vs Sporting Gijon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Gijon win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ceuta 33%, draw 29%, Sporting Gijon 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Gijon), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Gijon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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