Hillerod 0-3 FC Fredericia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 23 Sep 2024

Hillerod
0-3 HT 0-1
FC Fredericia
📅23/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Denmark 1st Division – 2024/2025

Hillerod vs FC Fredericia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.64
Draw
32%
3.94
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.51
Over 2.5
50%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
5.39
2-3 Goals
39%
2.0
4-5 Goals
25%
2.68
6+ Goals
9%
6.57
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.39 — our 27% vs market 14.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.08
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.25
X/1
10%
4.25
X/2
5%
9.9
X/X EV+ ✗
18%
6.38
2/1
8%
19.85
2/2
14%
6.58
2/X
7%
14.6
Value flag · X/X at 6.38 — our 18% vs market 11.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
57%
-13.8pp
32%
Draw
22%
+10.1pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
36%
+14.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
64%
-14.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.4pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hillerod v FC Fredericia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hillerod EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Fredericia EU Bookmakers 25%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.42/0.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/2.01
+13% / +111% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
384 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 77%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
20.4 Crosses 11.2
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

Hillerod vs FC Fredericia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hillerod
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FC Fredericia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.20 xG 1.28
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
342 Passes 400
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.10.2023 Hillerod Hillerod 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAN1
11.08.2023 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 3-2 HT 0-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
26.05.2023 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 4-0 HT 2-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
29.04.2023 Hillerod Hillerod 1-2 HT 0-1 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAN1
19.02.2023 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 0-2 HT 0-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
17.08.2022 Hillerod Hillerod 2-1 HT 0-0 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAN1

Hillerod 0-3 FC Fredericia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hillerod
0-3
AWAY FC Fredericia
2.90 xG 1.21
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
495 Passes 412
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
32 Box Touches 25
23 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Hillerod vs FC Fredericia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Fredericia ran out comfortable winners over Hillerod 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Hillerod at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Hillerod had 53% of the ball to FC Fredericia's 47%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.90 to 1.21 — on chances, Hillerod could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Fredericia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hillerod and 1.83 for FC Fredericia.

What was the final score of Hillerod vs FC Fredericia?

Hillerod 0-3 FC Fredericia in the Denmark 1st Division on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hillerod vs FC Fredericia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hillerod win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Hillerod 43%, draw 32%, FC Fredericia 25%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hillerod)
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