Cerro 0-5 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
2.99
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
47%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.52
Over 2.5
47%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.09
No
51%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
12%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
30%
-4.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
47%
Away Win
42%
+4.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
62%
-9.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
38%
+9.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.1pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 46%
+10% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
0.98/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/0.99
-15% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
360 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro
0W-2D-4L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
10.03.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
19.08.2023 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
04.02.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
16.01.2021 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
16.02.2020 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 1-1 Cerro Cerro URU
06.11.2019 Cerro Cerro 1-3 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro
0-5
AWAY CA Penarol
32% Ball Possession 68%
1 Total Shots 20
0 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cerro vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol ran out comfortable winners over Cerro 5-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Cerro had 32% of the ball to CA Penarol's 68%, shots finished 1-20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cerro and 2.00 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Cerro vs CA Penarol?

Cerro 0-5 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Cerro 26%, draw 28%, CA Penarol 47%. The final score 0-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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