Fluminense 1-0 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 23 Oct 2024

Fluminense
1-0 HT 0-0
Atletico Paranaense
📅23/10/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
33%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.52
Over 2.5
38%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.27
No
58%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.31
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.27
6+ Goals
8%
33.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.39
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.65
X/1
12%
3.67
X/2
11%
8.88
X/X
14%
4.01
2/1
8%
30.0
2/2
15%
8.08
2/X
8%
17.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
54%
-14.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
33%
Away Win
20%
+13.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
+0.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
-0.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.0pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fluminense v Atletico Paranaense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 22%
-4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.59/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.33
-1% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
417 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 78%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
23.2 Crosses 16.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.15 xG 1.06
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
480 Passes 258
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.08.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-2 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
22.04.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
04.09.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
15.05.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
17.10.2021 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 0-1 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
30.06.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 1-4 HT 1-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1

Fluminense 1-0 Atletico Paranaense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
1-0
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.60 xG 0.51
75% Ball Possession 25%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
654 Passes 159
90% Pass Accuracy 68%
19 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense squeezed past Atletico Paranaense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Fluminense found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fluminense had 75% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 25%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.60 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fluminense and 1.33 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense?

Fluminense 1-0 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie A on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 39%, draw 28%, Atletico Paranaense 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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