Spartak Varna 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.12
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.64
Over 2.5
34%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
43%
-4.2pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.2pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.0pp
66%
Under 2.5
57%
+8.3pp
34%
Over 2.5
43%
-8.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.3pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 32%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.53/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.35
+43% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -27%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
306 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.4 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Varna
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-1 HT 1-1 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Varna
1-0
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Varna edged past Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 31% / 30%) promised a tight game; Spartak Varna found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Spartak Varna had 55% of the ball to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 45%, shots finished 8-6.

What was the final score of Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Spartak Varna 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Spartak Varna 39%, draw 31%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Varna), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Varna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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