Arenas de Getxo 4-1 Gernika — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.8pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.8pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arenas de Getxo EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Gernika EU Bookmakers 28%
-14% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
0.99/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.41
-47% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
280 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 199 · 60%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
36.0 Crosses 19.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arenas de Getxo
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Gernika
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
46% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.02.2024 Arenas de Getxo Arenas de Getxo 0-0 HT 0-0 Gernika Gernika İS4
15.10.2023 Gernika Gernika 2-2 HT 0-1 Arenas de Getxo Arenas de Getxo İS4
16.04.2023 Gernika Gernika 0-2 HT 0-1 Arenas de Getxo Arenas de Getxo İS4
04.12.2022 Arenas de Getxo Arenas de Getxo 0-2 HT 0-0 Gernika Gernika İS4
27.02.2022 Gernika Gernika 0-2 HT 0-2 Arenas de Getxo Arenas de Getxo İS4
10.10.2021 Arenas de Getxo Arenas de Getxo 0-0 HT 0-0 Gernika Gernika İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arenas de Getxo
4-1
AWAY Gernika
67% Ball Possession 33%
8 Total Shots 2
6 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 0
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arenas de Getxo vs Gernika
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arenas de Getxo swept aside Gernika 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Arenas de Getxo as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arenas de Getxo had 67% of the ball to Gernika's 33%, shots finished 8-2.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arenas de Getxo had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Arenas de Getxo and 0.67 for Gernika.

What was the final score of Arenas de Getxo vs Gernika?

Arenas de Getxo 4-1 Gernika in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arenas de Getxo vs Gernika?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arenas de Getxo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Arenas de Getxo 43%, draw 29%, Gernika 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arenas de Getxo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arenas de Getxo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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