Umm Salal 0-3 Al Ahli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.09
2-3 Goals
46%
1.87
4-5 Goals
21%
3.13
6+ Goals
9%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.09 — our 24% vs market 19.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
22%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
29%
+5.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-5.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.0pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Umm Salal EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahli EU Bookmakers 49%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
0.73/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.04/1.19
-21% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -15%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
14.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
13.4 Crosses 8.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Umm Salal
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Al Ahli
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.36 xG 0.94
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
241 Passes 437
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.02.2024 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-2 HT 1-2 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
02.01.2024 Umm Salal Umm Salal 2-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KATYK
15.10.2023 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-1 HT 1-1 Umm Salal Umm Salal KATYK
23.09.2023 Umm Salal Umm Salal 3-1 HT 2-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
29.01.2023 Al Ahli Al Ahli 3-1 HT 2-1 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
19.09.2022 Umm Salal Umm Salal 2-1 HT 2-1 Al Ahli Al Ahli KATYK
POST-MATCH Umm Salal vs Al Ahli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli cruised past Umm Salal 3-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; Al Ahli found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Umm Salal had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Umm Salal and 1.17 for Al Ahli.

What was the final score of Umm Salal vs Al Ahli?

Umm Salal 0-3 Al Ahli in the Qatar League on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Umm Salal vs Al Ahli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahli win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Umm Salal 34%, draw 26%, Al Ahli 40%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahli), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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